First Pass at a 2024 Pollster Scorecard

The 2024 pollster scorecard, based on the methodology outlined here, reveals a surprising twist: few pollsters who performed well in 2022 managed to repeat their success in 2024—and vice versa. So, who topped the rankings overall? Newcomer pollsters stole the spotlight.

To provide more insight, I’ve split the scorecard into two sections: one evaluating pollsters on their performance in the 2022 midterms and another assessing their accuracy in the 2024 presidential race. I recommend taking all three scorecards in for the larger picture which they reveal.

Compiling this data wasn’t easy—manually collecting and cleaning polls is a painstaking process, and you’d be surprised how often poll aggregators misreport even basic poll details. To keep things manageable, I narrowed the scope to include only pollsters who polled in one of the seven battleground states in 2024 or conducted a national popular vote poll.

However, this must be taken in conjunction with the individual 2022 and 2024 performances. Here’s the 2024 performance:

And here is the 2022 performance, where New York Times tops the charts:

These scorecards are non-final, as I integrate and correct more data!