A new definition of TACO – TRUMP ALWAYS CALCULATES OUTCOMES. In the last 10 years of my 30 year career working for a major DoD contractor, I managed an organization of software engineers, mathematicians, statisticians, intelligence analysts and military subject matter experts that were used to develop Major Combat Operation (MCO) wargame simulations. Some of those simulations used first gen AI models. The DoD contracted our organization to use sophisticated models and war game simulations to build a library of MCO scenarios. Weapons systems models, -INT and C2ISR models were populated with the latest capabilities of the US and potential foreign adversary's. I cannot disclose how we know the capabilities of our adversary's, but suffice it to say it is to an eye watering level of detail. These models and their outputs of their data were fused to support the simulations. All of these activities were at the S, TS and/or CNWDI levels of classification.
The DoD models used the capabilities of our current weapons systems and those of our various adversaries to trade off outcomes over the time of a MCO and to answer the question: can the US destroy the capability of specific adversary to wage war under a variety of conditions. What weapons does the US military need to overcome those of an adversary and destroy its capability to wage war? It DOES NOT provide specific timelines but does provide detailed metrics for timed estimates of the completion of specific objectives. Your analysis has captured the details of the completion of many of those metrics.
I can tell you for a fact that planning for Major Combat Operation Epic Fury began shortly after President Trump took office and appointed Pete Hegseth as Sec Def and GEN Dan Caine as CJCS - not a coincidence that a USAF General is CJCS.
That planning used that latest updates to the Iran MCO and those sophisticated wargame simulations to help develop the Concepts of Operations (CONOPS) - the force structures, support units and weapons geolocations required to initiate Major Combat Operations (MCO). Those simulations and planning models defined the underlying TTP’s (tactics, techniques and procedures) which were then used to run the simulations to develop the metrics.
As you have pointed out, President Trump recognized a historic opportunity to destroy Iran's decades of using proxies to create terror and chaos around the world. The Islamic demons can bloviate all they want but the question they need to answer is who will be left alive to finally unconditionally surrender.
President Trump also understands the the best way to destroy an adversary's capability to wage war is to control their energy supply - oil. This MCO had multiple objectives and those are being achieved in the follow on operations. It ain't over yet until the fat mullah surrenders.
You are also correct in assessing that these operations will not substantially impact the US economy that has been growing at a record pace since President Trump took office.
Great job and great example of the use of event analysis to capture the reality of the situation.
Ali Akbar Salehi, former chief of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, told an Iranian state TV program in February 2024 that "we have all the [pieces] of nuclear science and technology” to build a nuclear bomb. He compared a nuclear weapon to a car, which consists of “a chassis, it needs an engine, it needs a steering wheel, it needs a gearbox. Have you made a gearbox? I say yes. An engine? But each one is for its own purpose.”
They built all the parts and enriched the uranium, yet always stopped short of breakout. I am convinced the plan all along was to stand at the nuclear threshold without breaking out. As long as they had all the parts of a weapon, they could put some bombs together, dirty or atomic, if the regime ever felt threatened. My guess is that the result would have looked like Mosaic Defense, but with radioactivity.
So why did they never cross that threshold? Because the cost of maintaining a nuclear deterrent is orders of magnitude greater than the cost of building one in the first place. Between actual spending and lost economic opportunities from related sanctions, the regime spent a trillion dollars getting to the nuclear threshold. Crossing it would have broken them, so the nuclear program was always a doomsday project from the beginning, I think.
Now do North Korea with a desire to bring about the second coming of the...er, Great Leader. Might be some holes in the "economic brinksmanship" argument?
Building a deterrent arsenal cost the regime between ~$1.6 billion (warheads/facilities) and "several billion" (full deterrent with missiles) over 50 years, whereas maintaining said arsenal now costs $600–650 million per year. That's 15.5% and 2.5% of annual GDP respectively. North Korea has a purchasing power parity advantage, so it's a very cheap nuclear fleet by the standards of nuclear arsenals, but it's still a massive hit to the economy. And they have about 50 warheads. The regime chose to cross the weaponization threshold and maintain a small, cut-rate inventory. If they pursued ambitions of global thermonuclear domination in Pyongyang, the economy would break. Did I answer your question?
I'll grant that putting an economic cost on having a nuclear capability is one way of evaluating its usefulness. Ostensible democracies evaluate cost differently than truly authoritarian regimes (India, Pakistan). I'd posit that authoritarian regime survivability trumps all other considerations, with the exception of a religious theocracy with a governing council riddled with powerful people who wish to bring about the arrival of the 12th Imam. N. Korea wants to survive, and understands they won't if they use it...and don't care what it costs for their populace. The mullocracy doesn't care about the cost and impact on the people, they want the "strange new respect" being a nuclear power would bring them like it did N. Korea. Internally keeping their "Millenials / 12ers / whatever you choose to call them under control (see Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) pushes the probability of actual nuclear device employment...unacceptably high. Of course, that's only If you believe what they repeatedly, publicly said. IMO, YMMV
How refreshing to read a breakdown like this from someone trustworthy! Will be resposting and restacking like mad to get this information across. Thank you for your service!!
The United States will provide insurance and military escort.
“Trump said he ordered the US government finance provider Development Finance Corporation "to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy."
Why don't the countries that most depend on the oil get together and subsidize the insurance? It's pennies for China, Japan, Europe, Qatar, Kuwait, etc.
Excellent! Comprehensive! I surmise you expertly curated and focused the Ai apps, and that is the true value add you bring. Nice work. Now, I'll plan to take your work to build a project or space in my preferred Ai Apps, and will build on it over coming weeks (hopefully not for months). Thanks!
If you were a DoD analyst, this would already be an impressive piece. The fact that you’re essentially an outsider and produced something of this depth makes it even more remarkable. Kudos—and thanks.
Excellent analysis as always, but you avoided the elephant in the room - Israel. According to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in press appearance the day after Epic Fury launched, our reason for joining the attack was because Israel was going to attack.
Epic Fury is our part in the Israel - Iran war, which has been ongoing at different levels, since 1980.
Your article covers the mid-range outcomes for the Iran political leadership.
What are the outcomes for other players.
1) The rest of the world may become weary of US carriers and airbases fueling risk around the world and align in with each other and China in new ways.
2) Can the United States and its NATO vassals sustain all this military cost, and when does the military cost translate to societal costs.
In the United States there is a constant message of Israel being some sort of ally, but rather than an ally Israel appears to be a costly liability. But I freely admit I may be wrong on this.
I would appreciate your assessment of this war on Israel’s prospects over the next 10 years, but I understand that may be outside the scope of your mission. In any case, a good article.
A possible weakness of the Mosaic defense is it assumes the continued loyalty of the independent commanders to the regime. The temptation to try to seize power as a local war lord, or to become the power behind the central leader must exist, particularly if the government's popularity falls due to economic collapse. All that's required is a suitable Ayatollah as a front man. Please analyze that possibility in your next pass. It plagued the Roman Empire for centuries.
The current conflict cannot be compared to the past conflicts like the Iran-Iraq war, or the US actions in Afghanistan or even Ukraine. According to GEN Flynn's latest SITREP update: '...Iran is willing to accept international condemnation for targeting civilian economic infrastructure in exchange for the psychological and political impact of threatening American workers on American soil or in American-affiliated facilities abroad. That is a terrorism calculus, not a military one."
STOP THINKING PROXIES - IRAN DEVELOPED AN ISLAMIC TERRORIST FRANCHISE MODEL
Since the Islamic revolution, Iran has franchised Islamic Shiite terrorism around the world. These are not proxies, they are franchises – an Islamic Shiite terrorist FRANCHISE business model based on Shia law. Shia law (Ja'fari jurisprudence) is a legal and ethical system followed by Shia Muslims. It is derived from the Quran, the Sunnah (prophet's actions), and the teachings of the Twelve Imams.
Fact 8 of this analysis is proof. Franchises can operate independently under certain guidelines. "Iran’s 31 autonomous provincial IRGC commands, each with pre-delegated launch authority, are firing pre-authorized strike packages without central coordination." They are guided by Shia law.
Ray Kroc talked about his vision for the McDonald’s franchise: “You increase the supply, and the demand will follow". The Shia Islamists of Iran knew there was plenty of supply side hatred for the Jews and the Western culture represented by the Great Satan, America and the little Satan Israel. They just needed to form a partnership with the demand side, which is the franchise business model demand side because they knew, like Ray Kroic said: "None of us is as good as all of us". All united in the destruction of the two Satans.
ISIS, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthi’s, Islamic Shia militias and other Islamic terrorist groups all reside in various countries that facilitate the movement of funds, weapons and fighters and share the same Shiite terror model. Iran has used their oil wealth to fund, develop and support a franchise model of Shiite terrorism based on mutual hatred of the United States and Israel. Their partners have been Russia and China who share that opposition and have been buying their cheap oil to fund their own proxies.
President Trump is in the process of cutting off the head of the Islamic terrorist serpent and their wild attacks are evidence they are dying and squirming and determined to kill as many people as possible before they finally die. Pure evil doesn't surrender. It doesn't negotiate. It won't adhere to any terms of peace. Peace is Evil's enemy. Evil needs to be totally destroyed before there can be any peace.
A new definition of TACO – TRUMP ALWAYS CALCULATES OUTCOMES. In the last 10 years of my 30 year career working for a major DoD contractor, I managed an organization of software engineers, mathematicians, statisticians, intelligence analysts and military subject matter experts that were used to develop Major Combat Operation (MCO) wargame simulations. Some of those simulations used first gen AI models. The DoD contracted our organization to use sophisticated models and war game simulations to build a library of MCO scenarios. Weapons systems models, -INT and C2ISR models were populated with the latest capabilities of the US and potential foreign adversary's. I cannot disclose how we know the capabilities of our adversary's, but suffice it to say it is to an eye watering level of detail. These models and their outputs of their data were fused to support the simulations. All of these activities were at the S, TS and/or CNWDI levels of classification.
The DoD models used the capabilities of our current weapons systems and those of our various adversaries to trade off outcomes over the time of a MCO and to answer the question: can the US destroy the capability of specific adversary to wage war under a variety of conditions. What weapons does the US military need to overcome those of an adversary and destroy its capability to wage war? It DOES NOT provide specific timelines but does provide detailed metrics for timed estimates of the completion of specific objectives. Your analysis has captured the details of the completion of many of those metrics.
I can tell you for a fact that planning for Major Combat Operation Epic Fury began shortly after President Trump took office and appointed Pete Hegseth as Sec Def and GEN Dan Caine as CJCS - not a coincidence that a USAF General is CJCS.
That planning used that latest updates to the Iran MCO and those sophisticated wargame simulations to help develop the Concepts of Operations (CONOPS) - the force structures, support units and weapons geolocations required to initiate Major Combat Operations (MCO). Those simulations and planning models defined the underlying TTP’s (tactics, techniques and procedures) which were then used to run the simulations to develop the metrics.
As you have pointed out, President Trump recognized a historic opportunity to destroy Iran's decades of using proxies to create terror and chaos around the world. The Islamic demons can bloviate all they want but the question they need to answer is who will be left alive to finally unconditionally surrender.
President Trump also understands the the best way to destroy an adversary's capability to wage war is to control their energy supply - oil. This MCO had multiple objectives and those are being achieved in the follow on operations. It ain't over yet until the fat mullah surrenders.
You are also correct in assessing that these operations will not substantially impact the US economy that has been growing at a record pace since President Trump took office.
Great job and great example of the use of event analysis to capture the reality of the situation.
The additional information you provided is quite interesting and compelling. Thank you!
Ali Akbar Salehi, former chief of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, told an Iranian state TV program in February 2024 that "we have all the [pieces] of nuclear science and technology” to build a nuclear bomb. He compared a nuclear weapon to a car, which consists of “a chassis, it needs an engine, it needs a steering wheel, it needs a gearbox. Have you made a gearbox? I say yes. An engine? But each one is for its own purpose.”
They built all the parts and enriched the uranium, yet always stopped short of breakout. I am convinced the plan all along was to stand at the nuclear threshold without breaking out. As long as they had all the parts of a weapon, they could put some bombs together, dirty or atomic, if the regime ever felt threatened. My guess is that the result would have looked like Mosaic Defense, but with radioactivity.
So why did they never cross that threshold? Because the cost of maintaining a nuclear deterrent is orders of magnitude greater than the cost of building one in the first place. Between actual spending and lost economic opportunities from related sanctions, the regime spent a trillion dollars getting to the nuclear threshold. Crossing it would have broken them, so the nuclear program was always a doomsday project from the beginning, I think.
Interesting take on the economics.
Now do North Korea with a desire to bring about the second coming of the...er, Great Leader. Might be some holes in the "economic brinksmanship" argument?
Building a deterrent arsenal cost the regime between ~$1.6 billion (warheads/facilities) and "several billion" (full deterrent with missiles) over 50 years, whereas maintaining said arsenal now costs $600–650 million per year. That's 15.5% and 2.5% of annual GDP respectively. North Korea has a purchasing power parity advantage, so it's a very cheap nuclear fleet by the standards of nuclear arsenals, but it's still a massive hit to the economy. And they have about 50 warheads. The regime chose to cross the weaponization threshold and maintain a small, cut-rate inventory. If they pursued ambitions of global thermonuclear domination in Pyongyang, the economy would break. Did I answer your question?
I'll grant that putting an economic cost on having a nuclear capability is one way of evaluating its usefulness. Ostensible democracies evaluate cost differently than truly authoritarian regimes (India, Pakistan). I'd posit that authoritarian regime survivability trumps all other considerations, with the exception of a religious theocracy with a governing council riddled with powerful people who wish to bring about the arrival of the 12th Imam. N. Korea wants to survive, and understands they won't if they use it...and don't care what it costs for their populace. The mullocracy doesn't care about the cost and impact on the people, they want the "strange new respect" being a nuclear power would bring them like it did N. Korea. Internally keeping their "Millenials / 12ers / whatever you choose to call them under control (see Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) pushes the probability of actual nuclear device employment...unacceptably high. Of course, that's only If you believe what they repeatedly, publicly said. IMO, YMMV
Each regime in question did a cost analysis to arrive at their nuclear posture. All war is fundamentally a macroeconomic affair.
absolutely incredible work
BRILLIANT !! TIMELY !! REASSURING RATIONAL ASSESSMENT COUNTERING A CESSPOOL OF FRANTIC CHAOS
You are a Gem DR
How refreshing to read a breakdown like this from someone trustworthy! Will be resposting and restacking like mad to get this information across. Thank you for your service!!
The United States will provide insurance and military escort.
“Trump said he ordered the US government finance provider Development Finance Corporation "to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy."
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2795888-us-offers-insurance-naval-escorts-for-gulf-traffic
Why don't the countries that most depend on the oil get together and subsidize the insurance? It's pennies for China, Japan, Europe, Qatar, Kuwait, etc.
Excellent! Comprehensive! I surmise you expertly curated and focused the Ai apps, and that is the true value add you bring. Nice work. Now, I'll plan to take your work to build a project or space in my preferred Ai Apps, and will build on it over coming weeks (hopefully not for months). Thanks!
If you were a DoD analyst, this would already be an impressive piece. The fact that you’re essentially an outsider and produced something of this depth makes it even more remarkable. Kudos—and thanks.
Excellent analysis as always, but you avoided the elephant in the room - Israel. According to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in press appearance the day after Epic Fury launched, our reason for joining the attack was because Israel was going to attack.
Epic Fury is our part in the Israel - Iran war, which has been ongoing at different levels, since 1980.
Your article covers the mid-range outcomes for the Iran political leadership.
What are the outcomes for other players.
1) The rest of the world may become weary of US carriers and airbases fueling risk around the world and align in with each other and China in new ways.
2) Can the United States and its NATO vassals sustain all this military cost, and when does the military cost translate to societal costs.
In the United States there is a constant message of Israel being some sort of ally, but rather than an ally Israel appears to be a costly liability. But I freely admit I may be wrong on this.
I would appreciate your assessment of this war on Israel’s prospects over the next 10 years, but I understand that may be outside the scope of your mission. In any case, a good article.
Brilliant assessment through compilation of the most reliable sources available! Thank you!
A possible weakness of the Mosaic defense is it assumes the continued loyalty of the independent commanders to the regime. The temptation to try to seize power as a local war lord, or to become the power behind the central leader must exist, particularly if the government's popularity falls due to economic collapse. All that's required is a suitable Ayatollah as a front man. Please analyze that possibility in your next pass. It plagued the Roman Empire for centuries.
Allow me to add an update.
The current conflict cannot be compared to the past conflicts like the Iran-Iraq war, or the US actions in Afghanistan or even Ukraine. According to GEN Flynn's latest SITREP update: '...Iran is willing to accept international condemnation for targeting civilian economic infrastructure in exchange for the psychological and political impact of threatening American workers on American soil or in American-affiliated facilities abroad. That is a terrorism calculus, not a military one."
STOP THINKING PROXIES - IRAN DEVELOPED AN ISLAMIC TERRORIST FRANCHISE MODEL
Since the Islamic revolution, Iran has franchised Islamic Shiite terrorism around the world. These are not proxies, they are franchises – an Islamic Shiite terrorist FRANCHISE business model based on Shia law. Shia law (Ja'fari jurisprudence) is a legal and ethical system followed by Shia Muslims. It is derived from the Quran, the Sunnah (prophet's actions), and the teachings of the Twelve Imams.
Fact 8 of this analysis is proof. Franchises can operate independently under certain guidelines. "Iran’s 31 autonomous provincial IRGC commands, each with pre-delegated launch authority, are firing pre-authorized strike packages without central coordination." They are guided by Shia law.
Ray Kroc talked about his vision for the McDonald’s franchise: “You increase the supply, and the demand will follow". The Shia Islamists of Iran knew there was plenty of supply side hatred for the Jews and the Western culture represented by the Great Satan, America and the little Satan Israel. They just needed to form a partnership with the demand side, which is the franchise business model demand side because they knew, like Ray Kroic said: "None of us is as good as all of us". All united in the destruction of the two Satans.
ISIS, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthi’s, Islamic Shia militias and other Islamic terrorist groups all reside in various countries that facilitate the movement of funds, weapons and fighters and share the same Shiite terror model. Iran has used their oil wealth to fund, develop and support a franchise model of Shiite terrorism based on mutual hatred of the United States and Israel. Their partners have been Russia and China who share that opposition and have been buying their cheap oil to fund their own proxies.
President Trump is in the process of cutting off the head of the Islamic terrorist serpent and their wild attacks are evidence they are dying and squirming and determined to kill as many people as possible before they finally die. Pure evil doesn't surrender. It doesn't negotiate. It won't adhere to any terms of peace. Peace is Evil's enemy. Evil needs to be totally destroyed before there can be any peace.
Good to see you posting here! Have not seen you since January.
Might I suggest some accounts for you to follow, they will help if you ingest what they are saying so your analysis includes what they are saying.
I cover them all at my substack too.
So, here is me, updated throughout the day: https://memeriver.substack.com/ for a couple posts per day
I am also at https://meme-river.com/ as I find good links
https://simplicius76.substack.com/
https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/archive
https://www.moonofalabama.org/
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
I have been following all of them for many years and they are solid sources of intel about all the current events
Outstanding. Thanks!
Thank you, thank you! Your thorough description got me off the fence to Upgrade to Paid. Great work! Are you sure you are not an Engineer??🤪🤪🤪
Excellent analysis on a vital and timely topic.